You will probably ‘fail’ at arbitrage trading too…

Originally posted on Sports Arbitrage Guide’s Blog

Most people who start arbitrage trading, fail. They won’t last more than a few months. They can’t perform when they lose all of the soft books and so unable to keep up their profits, they give up in desperation.

This is the line which I have heard for a long time now in ArbForum, and which I even began to believe myself. There is some level of truth to it – that most people don’t get past the “OMG, Bet365 limited me and now I can’t get my 3% arbs anymore! What do I do now?” stage. It is hard to go from the cushy, easy, straight forward early phase of arb trading in to the lonely, desperate, difficult stage and survive the transition…

When you start arbing, you get hundreds of pounds in free bonuses just handed to you. Every sportsbook offers you bets of several thousand pounds on every major league you look at. 2-6% arbs are in abundance and they seem to last hours. It really is an amazing experience to cash in so easily…but then you start getting limited at these soft books. Gradually you find the arbs getting thiner, and the bonuses stop coming in. You find yourself forced to either struggle to get on the 1% arb between Pinnacle and SBOBet before the line changes in 30 seconds, or you get a 2% arb which stays for hours, but will only allow you to bet £20 on it. The change is pretty stark, and of course you feel it.

But is ceasing your trading because of this change really a failure?

I’ve been working closely with someone over these past couple of weeks and with a few hours of setup, an hour or two at most a few days a week, and less than £10,000 trading capital, I have helped this person make over £600 in the first two weeks. We have just started to see the first limits, but everything is still working fine and we haven’t even deposited in all of the bookmakers we would like to use. £600 profit in two weeks, from a very lazy few hours per week approach, from money which was just sitting in the bank earning shit interest (I think it was going to take over 15 years of bank interest to earn how much we made in two weeks of casual trading), and it ain’t over yet. This week is already sizing up pretty well – probably another few hundred pounds profit again.

If they walked away from their trading right now, would they be another arb failure? I don’t know about you, but I like the idea of failing and making £600. If only all of my ventures failed with so much clear profit!

Temporary Part Time/Full Time Position Available

So in reply to this common view, I am going to propose a new way of thinking about this reality. Part Time trading has been a concept since arbing began. Plenty of people profess to trade part time, and to be honest, I don’t know how anyone trades full time (it can be pretty mind numbing!). Well, guess what, people can also trade temporarily too!

For too long, people introduced to arbitrage trading have been confronted with the idea that you are either a career trader, or you are a failure. Now, new traders can decide for themselves whether they want to just arb for a short period and re-asses what they think of it after that period, or whether they want to commit to becoming a full time, permanent arb trader. There is no one right way. As long as you are able to make the money which justifies your time – you win.

Personally, I now identify myself as something akin to a ‘Casual Contracter‘. I’m not full time, that is for sure. I am also not permanent. I come and go as I please, and trade when I please. And I recommend this style to everyone who can afford to do it. It gives you the freedom to do other things (run your own business, keep your day job, or whatever) and not feel stressed by ‘performing’ to a high arbing standards, while still giving you the benefits that come with being able to make extra money, pretty much on demand.

Arbing is a skill you learn once, and then re-apply as often as you like. And every time I have come back to trade a bit more – I have made more money. Failure just doesn’t seem like the right word to describe my non-permanent arb trader role…

Good luck to all of you, and I hope you all fail with as much profit as possible too!

 

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100 Percent Winners Review

Reposted from Sports Arbitrage Guide Blog

After a little research in to the 100 percent winners setup, exactly what is going on here is pretty clear to me. The creators of this software are experienced internet marketers who have already had success with a previous program in the Forex world, and are simply building on that success and making more money by branching out in to the arbitrage trading world. Unfortunately, the people who have created the whole 100 percent winners brand, are, as I said, Marketers, not arbitrage traders.

The Marketing of 100 Percent Winners

So what we have, is one of the best marketing campaigns you will have ever seen. They have the amazing sales page which covers every base you might worry about. They have the testimonial videos, the beta testing results, the explanations, the money back guarantees etc. They even have multiple domains, each covering different aspects of the marketing launch, including 100percentwinnersscam.net where people who are worried it is a scam, might actually believe they are about to be told all about how much of a scam it is – but I can guarantee that when you subscribe to that page, you will be told a ‘frank’ version of how it is probably actually pretty good afterall, and you might even make money using it…

Meanwhile, of course, they have set up an affiliate program and I assume started recruiting professional affiliate marketers well before launch date, so that they could saturate Google with positive affiliate-biased reviews and spin of their software. When you search 100 percent winners, or any variation of that term, you only get pages made by the company, reviews about the company posted by the company or someone affiliated with them, and affiliate pages selling the article. One affiliate page made me laugh:

Hi,I am Jones James and I from Chicago.I swear to the God the following 100 Percent Winners reviews is my real experience with the product.I got really interested when I first heard of sports investing and decided to test 100PercentWinners software.I paid 100 Percent Winners 3 weeks ago. This is going to completely change my life.$3,740 in first week…$21,095 in 4 weeks…and the best part is it’s completely automated, so once you set things up it all runs on autopilot.I love 100 Percent Winners.For the first time ever i’m in control of my life now.

Who knows how long this legal loophole is going to last, but I know this:Some smart people are going to make an absolute killing with it while it lasts.

LOL. Yeah. ‘swear to god’ alright. And lie your arse off. “Completely Automated” – even the company doesn’t claim that on its sales page. “Legal Loophole” FFS. Seriously. Who makes this shit up?

Getting back to their sales pitch itself, they talk all sorts of nonsense about $320,000 profit since the middle of 2010. I call BS on that one. They then highlight some 17-40% arbs they have placed in the last 24h – 100% legit and audited, they say. Bull. Shit. says I. And then their video showing how to make $320 in 3 minutes. Aside from the fact that I have trouble believing that it is legitimate – lets assume they got lucky and found a palp on betcity (which they didn’t show the cancelled bet there btw), the technique they showed in placing the arb will cause major losses for anyone trying to learn how to arb trade. They placed the bets at Pinnacle before even looking to make sure the odds were real at BetCity!!! Absolute sure fire way to lose money. Ugh.

100 Percent Winners – The Software

OK, full disclosure here – I was going to purchase the software and see for myself, and then probably use their full refund option (which I believe will be legitimate), but after simply browsing their videos, and thanks to a screenshot posted on Arbforum by someone who has already subscribed, I don’t really think I need to see the software myself. It is obvious that the software is basically just a simple alert service, which does *essentially* the job designed to do, but without any real caution for the reality of arbitrage. ie: No filters for palps, and no real finesse to finding the real arbs.

100 percent winners software screenshotWhen I saw the price being charged for a subscription, my first thought was not of it being expensive (as no doubt some people who stumble across their page will worry about). No, my first though was “How can someone run a decent alert service for that amount?” You can’t. No development team could create and maintain decent arbitrage software and make it worth their while for such a small ongoing subscription fee. Most of the market leading alert services at the moment charge 100 percent winner’s initial fee of $150 or more, every month.

Now if we look at the screenshot provided here, you can see so many obvious palps it isn’t funny. The first ‘arb’ there, for 90%!!!!!! has Stan James and Stan James. Yeah sure. A bookmaker will absolutely accept bets that guarantee itself a loss of 190% of whatever you bet. And as for the rest of them, simple experience tells me, and any other arber looking at that image, that none of those arbs are real.

Is 100 Percent Winners A Scam?

I wouldn’t call it a scam. You’re not about to lose your life savings by buying 100% winners, but you might lose $170 if you don’t ask for a refund… and then you can only blame yourself. No, I think these guys are just clever marketers who like bending the truth ‘a little bit’…. And besides – they aren’t even really making any money off the arbitrage sales. Their profit comes from the $490 Pro Tipping service they try to flog to you after you find arbitrage isn’t making you any money. (see the 100 percent winners affiliate page to see where their profits come from, and why so many people are trying to flog this software so hard).

I don’t think 100 percent winners is really worth anything. I mean, you spend money on arbitrage software to help make finding arbs easier, or at least hand enough to you each month to pay for itself + some profit. And every alert service I have ever paid for has been able to do that. I doubt 100 Percent Winners could. Maybe it could – but between all of the errors, palps, and false positives that fill it’s display, how would you ever find a real arb?

So if you actually want to do arbitrage trading, I recommend shopping around for a better service (and trialing a few of the free options out first). Buying 100 Percent Winners to do arbitrage trading is sort of like buying a rolex in Bali for $10. It seems like a bargain at the time, but in one week time when it stops working, you realise that it wasn’t even worth the $10.

Join the Discussion

Join our discussion on 100 Percent Winners in our forum. Ask questions if you want, or just tell everyone what your experience of their service was like.

 

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